* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 45 47 50 49 46 34 25 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 45 47 50 49 46 34 25 23 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 42 37 32 30 32 35 38 40 39 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 34 36 37 44 47 41 38 39 31 21 20 24 28 22 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 3 4 4 -6 -6 0 -1 -4 -3 1 0 -5 1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 246 243 233 220 205 201 210 224 248 252 268 252 256 250 212 219 SST (C) 26.3 25.3 24.8 24.0 22.6 17.6 19.3 15.4 22.9 24.2 23.8 22.9 22.8 21.7 20.9 20.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 110 106 101 92 75 78 69 89 95 92 87 86 81 78 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 95 92 88 82 69 70 65 75 77 75 72 72 69 67 66 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.6 -56.1 -56.0 -55.7 -56.3 -57.1 -57.8 -57.5 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 57 46 43 36 33 33 37 43 58 68 72 67 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 27 28 31 33 33 27 23 23 21 21 20 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 7 18 43 82 102 126 150 117 82 64 50 34 9 -11 -3 9 19 200 MB DIV 74 89 81 104 65 28 55 22 34 13 32 18 31 27 3 10 44 700-850 TADV 17 23 14 4 -4 -67 -52 -52 -61 -14 0 13 8 0 -4 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 389 427 395 404 392 412 355 485 654 736 721 713 740 735 725 723 755 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 39.4 40.1 41.0 41.8 43.1 43.6 43.5 42.8 42.5 42.8 43.1 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.8 66.0 64.1 62.0 59.9 55.7 52.0 48.9 46.9 45.9 45.8 45.6 45.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 15 12 9 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -21. -26. -30. -33. -37. -43. -46. -47. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 3. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. -16. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. -6. -15. -17. -21. -23. -29. -39. -46. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.6 67.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 45 47 50 49 46 34 25 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 43 45 48 47 44 32 23 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 40 37 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 32 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT