* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 53 56 54 43 30 26 31 35 29 21 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 53 56 54 43 30 26 31 35 29 21 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 46 46 42 36 32 32 37 43 45 46 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 31 33 37 47 36 41 41 17 7 11 7 4 5 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 6 4 4 0 -4 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 -4 -8 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 247 246 244 240 232 217 196 215 219 236 125 183 139 184 274 269 303 SST (C) 28.0 26.6 26.0 24.8 24.3 22.1 17.8 18.0 16.5 19.2 17.3 16.8 18.0 18.7 17.8 17.3 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 121 116 106 102 90 75 74 69 73 68 68 70 71 69 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 103 99 92 89 80 70 68 63 65 62 62 63 63 62 62 63 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -56.0 -55.9 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.4 -55.8 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 58 59 48 39 38 29 30 41 41 44 43 50 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 23 27 27 31 32 27 22 20 25 28 26 23 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR -19 12 23 53 87 118 141 137 96 40 25 45 57 55 58 35 32 200 MB DIV 64 83 100 76 91 31 46 22 21 22 23 20 58 45 35 9 15 700-850 TADV 22 14 14 6 4 -24 -44 -84 -109 -71 7 0 -6 -1 0 4 0 LAND (KM) 415 398 395 403 364 377 373 344 453 494 497 540 622 661 666 702 762 LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.3 39.0 39.9 40.8 42.2 43.4 44.2 44.3 44.6 45.1 45.3 45.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.0 68.5 66.9 65.0 63.0 59.0 54.6 50.5 48.4 47.5 47.1 46.4 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 17 16 12 5 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 12 CX,CY: 9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -19. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. -28. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 13. 8. 2. -2. 4. 9. 4. -1. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 14. 3. -10. -14. -9. -5. -11. -19. -22. -27. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 37.6 70.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 50 53 56 54 43 30 26 31 35 29 21 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 49 52 50 39 26 22 27 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 43 46 44 33 20 16 21 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 36 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT