* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODETTE AL152021 09/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 42 45 49 54 55 51 40 53 45 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 42 45 49 54 55 51 40 53 45 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 43 42 38 38 41 41 36 33 31 33 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 30 31 36 44 37 34 33 12 22 26 21 18 8 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 8 7 5 0 -3 -5 8 6 6 4 3 8 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 244 248 243 243 245 232 215 214 243 300 61 75 47 17 292 286 298 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 27.1 26.1 24.9 23.1 17.2 18.1 15.7 13.7 13.4 12.8 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 143 127 117 107 95 75 75 68 63 62 63 65 64 64 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 122 109 101 93 85 70 69 64 60 59 60 61 60 60 61 62 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -52.9 -54.1 -56.0 -55.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 59 59 57 43 36 27 31 41 41 42 45 45 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 22 22 25 29 32 31 27 38 35 29 20 16 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -12 21 19 47 112 138 161 122 32 -4 15 46 63 70 32 10 200 MB DIV 62 59 80 95 72 71 49 17 37 -18 0 8 2 15 2 1 -31 700-850 TADV 14 14 10 13 8 4 -35 -61 -108 -1 32 37 9 9 16 9 11 LAND (KM) 349 428 409 403 435 403 394 265 306 375 394 439 528 572 587 634 734 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.6 41.5 43.3 44.4 45.4 45.8 45.9 46.2 46.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 70.4 68.9 67.0 65.1 60.6 56.1 52.2 49.6 48.4 48.1 47.4 46.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 19 17 12 8 3 2 4 4 1 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 72 64 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. -0. -8. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -36. -37. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 9. 23. 20. 10. -3. -9. -8. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 10. 14. 19. 20. 16. 5. 18. 10. -5. -24. -39. -41. -45. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.3 71.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152021 ODETTE 09/18/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 42 45 49 54 55 51 40 53 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 46 51 52 48 37 50 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 43 44 40 29 42 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 35 31 20 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT