* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 40 38 42 46 38 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 271 266 263 269 273 286 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 147 151 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 119 119 119 123 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 5 7 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 57 56 54 50 48 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 13 11 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -14 5 2 -31 -18 -73 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 31 42 51 24 10 -2 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 2 -2 -1 3 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -46 -44 -46 -52 -59 -101 -163 -226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.6 31.2 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 93.6 93.2 92.9 92.7 92.6 92.6 92.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. -1. -10. -19. -28. -36. -41. -46. -54. -58. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -9. -16. -21. -26. -32. -35. -38. -42. -45. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.1 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT