* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 66 64 61 53 43 36 32 28 24 21 20 19 17 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 65 53 43 36 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 53 43 36 32 29 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 32 39 44 38 48 41 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 0 -1 0 0 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 271 261 268 272 267 269 275 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 154 154 152 149 147 151 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 127 128 126 121 119 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 7 7 4 7 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 55 54 53 45 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -48 3 0 -23 10 -43 -22 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 44 68 70 59 32 35 23 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 13 16 15 9 3 2 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -7 -47 -90 -74 -58 -49 -36 -56 -87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 95.6 95.4 94.9 94.4 93.5 93.4 92.8 92.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 27 4 6 5 4 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -32. -33. -34. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -4. -12. -22. -29. -33. -37. -41. -44. -45. -46. -48. -50. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.8 95.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 5.5% 4.0% 4.3% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 5.9% 1.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 53 43 36 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 54 47 44 40 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 54 51 47 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 18 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 48 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT