* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 62 60 57 52 46 40 37 35 31 29 27 25 23 21 18 V (KT) LAND 60 51 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 53 43 36 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 24 29 34 40 43 44 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 8 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 275 272 268 267 273 265 278 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 155 158 160 157 163 160 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 132 131 131 133 131 135 131 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 6 7 3 6 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 55 55 58 52 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 12 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -58 -44 0 -1 -11 -23 -52 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 61 32 64 74 30 41 18 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 24 15 15 18 6 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 -27 -85 -98 -111 -138 -175 -153 -292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.0 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.0 31.4 31.7 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 95.9 95.5 95.1 94.7 93.6 91.8 90.7 90.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 5 6 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 43 6 4 4 4 5 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -14. -20. -23. -25. -29. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 96.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.0% 2.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/14/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 51 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 50 44 40 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 12HR AGO 60 57 56 50 46 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT