* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/13/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 49 46 42 36 33 31 29 28 26 24 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 50 50 43 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 44 37 33 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 26 25 24 30 43 38 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 10 7 -1 1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 269 278 267 261 277 270 271 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 162 154 154 157 161 157 164 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 142 133 130 132 135 130 136 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 7 4 7 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 57 55 54 53 54 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 16 16 13 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -24 -56 -39 12 7 14 -55 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 56 57 43 64 55 22 26 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 28 24 11 19 14 5 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 94 50 -21 -78 -119 -163 -215 -226 -258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.9 28.8 29.5 30.1 31.1 31.7 32.1 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.3 96.2 95.9 95.6 94.4 92.9 91.5 90.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 34 42 14 4 5 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. -36. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -26. -30. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.9 96.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 8.5% 6.1% 5.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.3% 2.2% 2.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.3% 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 43 37 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 42 36 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 40 36 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 36 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT