* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 54 54 50 46 39 34 32 29 27 26 25 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 47 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 49 41 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 23 23 24 38 41 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 8 7 9 2 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 266 271 283 275 270 272 269 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 158 158 159 159 159 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 146 137 134 134 133 132 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 4 8 3 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 57 55 53 56 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 16 14 14 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -18 -47 -32 2 9 -11 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 69 76 44 51 56 12 44 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 29 18 8 16 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 46 52 50 -8 -69 -128 -142 -190 -181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.5 27.5 28.4 29.2 30.3 31.0 31.5 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.9 96.8 96.8 96.6 96.4 95.4 93.9 92.4 90.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 36 42 27 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 4. 0. -4. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. -27. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.4 96.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.3% 9.5% 8.4% 6.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 9.0% 4.4% 3.5% 1.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.2% 4.7% 4.1% 2.3% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 47 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 43 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 38 31 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 33 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT