* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 52 55 57 52 45 40 34 32 31 28 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 18 23 26 27 42 49 48 40 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 5 7 3 0 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 226 241 248 262 262 261 264 264 272 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.9 30.0 30.2 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 168 170 171 165 165 167 166 165 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 167 161 152 151 152 140 135 135 132 130 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 4 8 3 9 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 66 62 62 59 52 50 50 42 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 19 17 17 17 14 11 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 4 -15 -6 -18 -9 41 37 13 -23 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 136 101 63 54 60 55 86 28 18 -6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 9 15 28 16 16 1 -2 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 184 101 54 41 -53 -205 -300 -313 -363 -366 -325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.5 30.4 31.7 32.1 32.8 32.9 32.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.0 97.1 96.7 96.2 95.7 95.1 94.8 94.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 5 4 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 37 32 39 54 4 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -16. -23. -28. -32. -35. -40. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -9. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 12. 15. 17. 12. 5. -0. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.0 96.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.0% 8.7% 7.4% 5.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 17.8% 8.5% 5.9% 2.0% 4.3% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 5.8% 4.5% 2.4% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/13/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 51 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 38 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 31 21 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT