* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICHOLAS AL142021 09/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 49 52 58 53 50 42 34 31 29 27 25 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 49 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 45 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 15 16 20 26 32 43 45 47 38 27 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 1 7 3 1 -2 -2 -3 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 216 230 242 244 266 267 264 264 271 273 277 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 30.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 172 168 166 171 162 166 166 165 165 167 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 162 159 153 149 150 136 137 134 131 130 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 4 8 5 9 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 75 70 65 65 57 54 49 50 40 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 16 17 16 18 14 13 11 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 38 10 -1 6 -34 21 18 40 -38 -5 -41 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 121 126 96 65 67 41 41 46 33 0 6 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 9 14 28 17 10 0 -2 0 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 201 189 124 48 34 -72 -186 -247 -282 -317 -334 -373 -469 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.3 24.4 25.6 26.7 28.8 30.3 31.3 32.0 32.4 32.5 32.9 33.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.5 96.8 97.1 97.0 96.5 95.9 95.2 95.0 95.2 95.1 94.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 3 1 1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 50 40 32 35 40 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -30. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 6. 1. -0. -5. -9. -12. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 23. 18. 15. 7. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.3 95.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.5% 8.9% 7.2% 5.1% 8.7% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 19.2% 8.3% 4.0% 1.3% 4.9% 3.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 11.4% 5.8% 3.8% 2.1% 4.5% 4.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142021 NICHOLAS 09/12/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 46 49 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 45 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 30 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT