* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MINDY AL132021 09/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 31 31 30 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 25 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 35 36 36 47 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 6 3 1 3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 188 185 191 194 205 214 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 153 153 139 138 139 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 138 138 122 117 116 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 49 41 37 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 19 15 8 -5 -11 -56 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 30 9 4 -6 -13 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -21 -12 -30 -54 -37 -29 -13 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -28 88 164 221 304 516 679 809 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.8 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.1 34.5 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.8 79.8 77.8 75.7 73.6 70.4 68.4 66.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 16 11 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 33 55 22 28 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 18 CX,CY: 16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -21. -30. -38. -44. -49. -57. -63. -65. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -16. -20. -23. -28. -29. -32. -36. -39. -40. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.2 81.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132021 MINDY 09/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132021 MINDY 09/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132021 MINDY 09/09/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 31 31 30 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT