* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MINDY AL132021 09/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 42 47 50 51 52 50 44 41 35 32 32 32 31 30 31 30 V (KT) LAND 35 42 40 35 38 39 36 31 28 22 19 19 19 17 17 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 36 39 39 36 32 28 24 23 23 24 26 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 27 30 31 39 48 43 35 23 16 16 19 22 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -1 2 1 2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 0 0 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 216 203 205 199 190 193 190 211 223 239 252 249 227 230 223 228 238 SST (C) 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.8 26.0 26.0 25.3 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 155 159 159 160 161 141 141 140 135 133 124 116 115 109 108 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 139 142 144 146 145 126 123 121 116 113 106 99 99 94 93 91 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -53.2 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -53.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.3 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 6 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 58 53 45 43 40 38 36 41 43 45 45 46 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 7 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -13 -18 -11 5 -10 -18 -43 -71 -103 -138 -139 -153 -133 -131 -101 -72 200 MB DIV 31 58 26 12 33 7 23 -17 33 -7 6 -2 -4 2 23 29 9 700-850 TADV 5 3 -4 -7 -5 -36 -21 -18 2 -1 10 17 17 12 0 2 -7 LAND (KM) 206 40 -4 -83 81 289 448 671 819 830 918 985 992 1094 1269 1471 1711 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.4 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.7 33.9 35.2 36.5 37.2 37.7 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.8 85.5 84.1 82.4 80.4 76.2 72.3 68.7 65.5 62.1 58.4 54.9 51.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 17 19 17 17 15 15 15 14 15 15 14 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 30 4 33 54 18 21 27 18 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 355 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -8. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. -32. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 16. 17. 15. 9. 6. 0. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.4 86.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132021 MINDY 09/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 16.4% 10.0% 8.4% 5.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.5% 25.7% 18.1% 7.5% 1.6% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.9% 14.5% 9.6% 5.6% 2.5% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132021 MINDY 09/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132021 MINDY 09/08/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 42 40 35 38 39 36 31 28 22 19 19 19 17 17 18 16 18HR AGO 35 34 32 27 30 31 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 26 29 30 27 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT