* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 35 37 35 33 29 23 21 20 17 16 16 19 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 28 33 35 33 31 26 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 23 26 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 20 23 28 25 41 44 40 42 37 32 26 25 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 0 1 1 2 -3 -4 -6 -1 -1 0 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 243 208 204 203 195 185 200 202 214 219 217 225 231 230 231 236 242 SST (C) 29.6 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.5 25.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 143 151 155 162 166 160 143 141 138 142 138 131 123 121 113 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 128 133 138 146 149 143 125 120 117 121 119 114 106 105 97 100 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -53.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 -56.3 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 59 55 48 44 41 41 38 41 46 53 51 52 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 7 8 8 9 8 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 3 -1 -22 -18 -22 -32 -38 -60 -93 -97 -102 -90 -88 -71 -58 -53 200 MB DIV -1 33 56 31 17 9 12 -1 9 5 18 4 26 -15 30 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 0 -3 -9 -14 -14 -7 3 0 6 3 -3 10 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 218 204 132 24 -17 161 323 424 573 693 745 752 873 989 1045 1242 1486 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.2 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.7 31.3 32.3 33.1 34.3 35.7 37.1 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 87.3 86.3 85.1 83.5 79.8 76.5 73.0 70.3 68.3 66.1 62.6 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 15 16 15 14 10 10 14 17 19 17 17 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 101 29 18 22 32 69 56 20 32 20 32 20 13 8 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 14 CX,CY: 10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 38. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. -0. -8. -16. -25. -31. -36. -43. -46. -48. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 15. 13. 9. 3. 1. -0. -3. -4. -4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.2 88.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 17.4% 11.8% 3.4% 0.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/08/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 29 28 33 35 33 31 26 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 24 29 31 29 27 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 18 23 25 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT