* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 36 39 38 35 31 31 32 31 29 28 29 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 32 30 33 33 29 25 25 26 25 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 22 27 26 24 21 19 18 19 20 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 12 20 22 24 22 30 41 42 35 31 23 24 28 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -5 -2 -3 0 -2 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 228 192 202 203 187 214 222 241 245 237 223 229 224 243 237 260 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 161 151 145 152 160 159 160 148 141 134 133 132 132 134 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 141 131 126 134 139 139 137 125 117 110 107 108 107 110 113 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.5 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 7 4 5 3 5 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 57 54 49 43 40 38 40 41 43 46 50 56 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -33 5 2 1 -15 -32 -45 -82 -76 -138 -107 -114 -93 -102 -108 -125 200 MB DIV 7 -3 12 40 30 16 23 40 -4 12 -11 1 -5 21 9 30 7 700-850 TADV 5 0 3 2 -1 -3 -15 -10 -2 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 -9 LAND (KM) 346 250 186 155 195 94 -41 116 223 231 252 322 385 472 562 671 569 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.4 30.4 31.4 32.5 33.3 33.8 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 89.4 88.8 88.1 87.3 84.8 82.5 80.2 78.0 76.2 74.4 73.0 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 11 10 12 10 9 7 6 4 6 5 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 54 78 93 51 27 21 17 63 102 45 38 20 20 22 25 26 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 2. -4. -12. -20. -24. -28. -33. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 18. 15. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.0 90.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 16.6% 13.3% 4.4% 0.7% 3.7% 1.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.6% 4.5% 1.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/08/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 32 30 33 33 29 25 25 26 25 23 23 24 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 30 28 31 31 27 23 23 24 23 21 21 22 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 26 24 27 27 23 19 19 20 19 17 17 18 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT