* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 50 50 47 42 39 36 29 22 19 19 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 50 50 47 42 34 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 36 34 31 24 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 12 4 14 13 20 22 38 47 44 37 51 59 59 38 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -6 -1 -2 -6 -4 -6 -10 -6 -5 -7 -14 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 238 271 304 182 212 266 240 265 249 264 264 287 295 300 295 306 304 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.8 29.2 29.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 166 162 166 164 157 146 147 149 152 156 154 147 154 161 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 143 139 142 140 133 123 123 125 126 127 127 122 128 135 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -54.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 6 6 3 5 3 5 2 7 3 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 53 54 51 46 47 46 47 47 47 47 48 46 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -21 -24 5 9 5 -12 -24 -45 -82 -115 -153 -146 -144 -138 -167 -72 200 MB DIV 32 3 0 29 31 16 31 12 19 2 -10 -22 28 9 -1 -19 -3 700-850 TADV 3 7 7 0 0 0 -5 0 0 3 4 6 -2 -1 -3 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 447 416 359 303 257 216 229 257 194 117 47 -16 -62 -72 -157 -285 -472 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.7 30.5 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.4 91.2 90.9 90.6 90.1 89.1 87.9 87.1 86.3 85.9 86.0 86.5 87.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 58 80 83 82 35 23 18 20 25 23 3 4 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -7. -15. -20. -27. -37. -46. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 20. 25. 25. 22. 17. 14. 11. 4. -3. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.9 91.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.7% 8.7% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 18.3% 16.8% 5.2% 0.7% 4.8% 3.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 10.7% 8.5% 4.2% 0.2% 1.6% 4.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/08/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 50 50 47 42 34 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 43 48 48 45 40 32 28 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 43 43 40 35 27 23 21 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 35 35 32 27 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT