* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 24 30 36 41 44 40 36 34 33 31 28 29 27 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 24 30 36 41 44 40 36 34 33 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 26 25 22 20 17 22 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 14 20 17 4 21 17 27 26 43 39 43 53 42 41 32 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -3 -8 6 0 12 -1 SHEAR DIR 300 254 277 301 293 282 263 267 260 253 249 260 253 249 249 276 274 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 169 169 165 162 162 162 163 161 165 172 172 172 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 147 147 146 141 137 137 135 137 138 143 159 161 156 158 149 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 6 3 7 4 8 3 6 700-500 MB RH 64 59 56 58 53 52 50 46 50 48 51 52 53 49 47 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 -5 -8 0 0 4 -9 -13 -42 -58 -110 -57 -54 -35 -39 -44 200 MB DIV 27 41 6 5 27 18 20 0 36 37 23 47 52 43 67 79 33 700-850 TADV 1 2 6 5 0 1 -1 1 0 0 -5 -15 -9 -41 -20 21 2 LAND (KM) 364 405 426 449 442 381 346 317 272 227 147 80 19 -199 -469 -666 -787 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.2 92.0 91.8 91.5 90.7 90.0 89.4 89.0 89.1 90.0 91.4 93.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 4 3 3 2 3 7 8 11 13 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 68 59 51 41 36 36 54 74 75 80 62 52 43 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -7. -14. -21. -28. -36. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 20. 16. 14. 13. 11. 8. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.7 92.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 18.8% 13.9% 6.5% 1.2% 8.7% 10.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 6.3% 4.6% 2.2% 0.4% 2.9% 3.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 22 24 30 36 41 44 40 36 34 33 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 22 28 34 39 42 38 34 32 31 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 24 30 35 38 34 30 28 27 22 21 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT