* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 37 42 43 41 35 32 31 28 25 22 19 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 37 42 43 41 35 32 31 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 27 27 26 23 20 17 19 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 6 14 20 17 12 21 24 29 40 46 44 41 55 48 55 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -7 -5 1 -3 3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 311 294 239 278 308 226 289 262 267 254 240 247 264 258 263 265 273 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 168 169 169 169 162 162 164 163 166 167 171 171 171 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 148 149 145 137 135 138 135 142 145 150 161 158 157 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 9 7 7 5 6 4 6 3 8 3 7 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 56 57 53 51 47 48 49 50 52 55 55 52 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 7 1 -6 15 -4 -28 -9 -43 -64 -90 -103 -54 -65 -51 -71 200 MB DIV 2 32 39 29 2 17 20 16 5 23 37 41 23 55 65 68 32 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 7 3 0 1 -3 1 0 -4 -4 -15 -16 -26 29 6 LAND (KM) 320 364 381 402 435 394 346 324 297 261 224 139 69 -117 -332 -476 -491 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.1 28.0 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.3 92.1 91.9 91.7 91.2 90.5 90.0 89.6 89.3 90.0 91.4 93.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 3 1 6 8 10 10 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 61 54 41 37 42 66 77 77 78 58 57 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -6. -14. -21. -26. -36. -43. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 22. 23. 21. 15. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.2 92.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 30.8% 24.8% 15.7% 3.9% 16.0% 9.6% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 10.3% 8.3% 5.2% 1.3% 5.3% 3.2% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/07/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 29 37 42 43 41 35 32 31 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 27 35 40 41 39 33 30 29 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 31 36 37 35 29 26 25 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT