* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 26 31 36 37 36 33 31 31 30 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 26 31 36 37 36 33 31 31 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 23 8 16 22 5 23 14 30 32 46 40 38 39 45 37 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -9 -8 -7 -1 0 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 287 310 305 243 275 237 248 237 241 234 237 241 249 249 269 284 287 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.1 30.5 30.9 30.9 31.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 168 168 169 169 168 166 164 162 162 171 172 171 170 171 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 145 146 149 151 145 140 137 136 137 151 158 160 155 163 154 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 3 6 3 8 2 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 60 57 54 51 50 46 48 47 50 50 53 52 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 9 15 2 2 0 -5 -18 -24 -59 -79 -137 -47 -90 -27 -105 200 MB DIV 16 4 30 39 22 35 -4 20 10 18 39 31 41 56 18 56 36 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 3 9 0 5 0 3 2 0 -9 -20 -10 -33 -7 29 LAND (KM) 273 310 326 331 357 432 426 379 368 313 267 192 95 -112 -255 -410 -502 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.8 24.7 25.3 25.7 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.6 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.0 91.6 91.0 90.5 90.1 89.9 90.3 91.7 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 5 10 11 8 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 64 68 70 66 41 35 40 46 74 75 60 55 6 6 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -14. -20. -25. -32. -38. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 17. 16. 13. 11. 11. 10. 7. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 22.5 92.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 8.3% 5.3% 2.8% 0.5% 4.1% 2.3% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/07/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 22 26 31 36 37 36 33 31 31 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 25 30 35 36 35 32 30 30 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 21 26 31 32 31 28 26 26 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT