* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/07/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 33 38 41 41 38 37 37 34 29 27 24 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 27 33 38 41 41 38 37 37 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 19 21 22 23 24 22 20 18 17 20 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 31 26 14 15 16 13 18 29 35 45 41 40 45 51 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -6 -7 -13 -6 -7 -2 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 281 294 311 308 272 309 234 265 226 239 233 246 247 255 264 287 306 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.9 30.5 30.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 166 168 169 168 168 166 165 165 162 166 169 167 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 143 144 147 151 146 144 141 140 140 139 139 146 137 124 127 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 5 7 4 7 3 6 3 9 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 62 58 54 52 47 47 45 44 46 56 51 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 2 -1 2 9 -2 9 8 -7 0 -36 -80 -99 -122 -122 -164 -147 200 MB DIV 26 31 3 15 31 24 25 17 28 9 20 10 9 -1 -19 -27 -1 700-850 TADV 0 6 3 1 5 3 2 3 -2 3 2 4 0 -2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 244 275 295 310 328 392 455 424 400 349 271 161 36 -8 -17 -34 -61 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 24.2 25.0 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.6 27.6 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.5 92.5 92.4 92.3 91.9 91.3 90.6 89.9 89.3 89.1 89.3 89.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 7 5 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 43 56 66 70 58 35 34 42 70 73 82 40 40 32 27 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 44. 45. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -7. -15. -21. -26. -34. -41. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 18. 17. 17. 14. 9. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 22.0 92.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 7.4% 4.0% 3.1% 0.7% 4.4% 8.1% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/07/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/07/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 23 27 33 38 41 41 38 37 37 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 25 31 36 39 39 36 35 35 29 26 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 28 33 36 36 33 32 32 26 23 22 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT