* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 29 28 27 27 26 24 23 22 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 29 28 27 27 26 24 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 25 24 32 30 19 23 20 25 32 32 43 40 44 36 47 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -6 -4 -1 0 -3 0 -4 0 -7 -2 0 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 303 307 288 292 307 272 301 247 275 236 242 225 234 227 234 234 247 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.6 30.5 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 148 152 160 167 168 167 167 167 166 168 167 171 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 129 130 134 141 147 147 141 142 142 142 146 145 161 154 164 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -54.4 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 7 4 8 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 67 68 67 66 58 57 52 49 47 49 50 53 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -20 -18 -19 -4 -3 3 0 -11 11 -1 -18 -54 -23 -48 -54 200 MB DIV 10 11 15 22 -1 24 16 34 -5 6 0 46 40 34 45 19 26 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 5 1 5 3 1 2 -2 0 1 4 -12 -21 -30 -38 LAND (KM) 119 146 152 147 159 208 300 385 406 398 376 413 367 264 218 67 -40 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.4 24.7 24.7 24.6 25.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.8 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.5 91.4 91.1 90.7 90.4 90.0 89.8 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 1 2 2 3 6 8 10 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 21 22 24 40 56 40 33 32 33 34 42 59 52 44 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -12. -18. -23. -29. -36. -40. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.4 91.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.6% 4.5% 7.1% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 2.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/06/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 29 28 27 27 26 24 23 22 22 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 23 24 27 27 26 25 25 24 22 21 20 20 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 21 24 24 23 22 22 21 19 18 17 17 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT