* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 30 31 30 30 29 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 30 31 30 30 29 26 23 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 18 17 16 16 17 18 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 32 25 29 33 14 22 7 22 15 33 39 50 46 45 45 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -6 -7 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -7 -8 -13 -6 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 291 303 308 294 297 314 285 278 241 256 238 230 232 236 238 245 250 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.3 30.8 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 150 160 170 169 164 162 160 157 160 163 172 173 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 132 132 141 152 152 138 137 136 132 136 142 157 171 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 63 66 66 67 68 69 66 63 59 54 48 48 45 48 48 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -35 -31 -20 -20 -10 -6 -5 -19 1 4 2 -25 -50 -98 -69 -84 200 MB DIV 26 20 19 20 16 22 16 32 -14 31 -2 24 67 37 60 48 24 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 2 6 1 9 1 2 0 0 1 2 -5 -14 -13 -35 LAND (KM) 104 131 138 144 142 184 282 390 434 423 417 395 351 266 184 99 -151 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 22.3 23.4 24.5 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 91.7 91.7 91.7 91.6 91.4 91.2 90.9 90.4 90.0 89.4 88.8 88.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 2 2 3 2 4 7 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 22 22 23 35 55 41 31 34 44 69 81 80 64 48 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -13. -18. -25. -33. -39. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.2 91.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 3.1% 3.6% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/06/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 30 31 30 30 29 26 23 22 23 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 23 25 27 29 30 29 29 28 25 22 21 22 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 22 24 26 27 26 26 25 22 19 18 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT