* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 32 36 37 38 39 39 35 32 32 34 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 32 36 37 38 39 39 35 32 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 20 22 23 23 21 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 27 27 22 27 15 21 6 25 16 31 40 50 43 39 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -7 0 -5 -6 -8 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 293 273 280 293 297 283 308 281 253 239 230 235 230 225 230 240 238 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.3 30.0 30.4 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.7 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 150 149 149 154 167 169 166 158 158 157 155 160 164 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 133 131 131 135 148 155 144 133 133 132 128 138 146 168 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 66 67 69 66 63 56 53 44 44 45 47 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -26 -18 -20 -19 -8 0 -9 -8 -12 -13 -10 -4 -35 -35 -62 -45 200 MB DIV 25 42 23 27 38 15 31 18 41 -11 13 -4 18 36 37 55 4 700-850 TADV 4 3 5 4 3 6 2 8 3 2 0 -1 0 0 -17 -23 -20 LAND (KM) 49 65 82 102 109 138 223 331 441 379 372 395 399 382 337 314 92 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 22.0 22.9 24.0 25.1 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.1 91.2 91.3 91.3 91.1 91.0 90.7 90.4 89.9 89.3 88.8 88.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 2 2 2 0 6 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 29 24 23 27 45 50 31 46 64 69 74 65 45 52 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -31. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 15. 12. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.0 91.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.3% 2.8% 3.2% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 1.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/05/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 32 36 37 38 39 39 35 32 32 34 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 29 31 35 36 37 38 38 34 31 31 33 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 25 27 31 32 33 34 34 30 27 27 29 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT