* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 31 33 35 36 40 43 43 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 31 33 35 36 40 43 43 41 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 24 25 25 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 15 21 25 22 26 15 22 13 18 15 23 28 40 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -5 0 0 -6 -1 -6 -3 -7 -8 -10 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 301 291 272 285 298 283 285 253 223 245 217 234 216 228 229 245 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.2 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 151 150 150 152 157 163 169 164 157 155 155 155 156 153 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 135 132 131 132 136 143 150 143 134 131 132 130 131 131 136 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 6 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 65 68 69 69 66 64 58 53 44 44 43 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -39 -30 -22 -20 -10 0 2 0 4 -4 6 14 17 -16 -38 -82 200 MB DIV 34 26 31 31 7 32 33 36 14 54 9 21 -8 17 25 46 58 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 1 3 2 4 1 9 0 2 0 0 0 6 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 52 102 141 170 185 211 212 256 342 436 390 353 339 330 270 156 60 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.6 25.9 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.1 92.2 91.9 91.7 91.4 91.0 90.4 89.7 88.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 4 3 4 3 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 27 23 21 22 26 38 58 59 28 33 58 82 106 117 96 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -16. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 20. 23. 23. 21. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.7 91.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.9% 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 6.5% 6.0% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2.2% 2.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 31 33 35 36 40 43 43 41 41 40 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 24 28 30 32 34 35 39 42 42 40 40 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 20 24 26 28 30 31 35 38 38 36 36 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT