* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 28 34 39 44 49 54 58 65 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 28 34 39 44 49 54 58 65 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 26 29 31 35 38 39 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 18 12 20 25 22 21 19 18 12 14 16 26 40 53 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 -6 -3 -1 0 -4 -7 -5 -7 -8 -10 -12 SHEAR DIR 260 279 305 290 269 303 272 291 262 280 245 266 235 251 237 243 240 SST (C) 29.9 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.2 29.6 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 156 151 151 150 150 153 159 168 170 161 156 159 149 144 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 141 136 134 133 130 132 139 148 151 140 134 138 130 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 7 9 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 7 3 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 66 67 69 70 72 67 67 61 56 48 43 42 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 10 12 12 14 13 12 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -34 -31 -24 -17 -16 -4 -6 7 0 2 4 0 24 20 1 -19 200 MB DIV 16 38 30 49 38 5 48 26 33 24 30 -5 10 24 48 44 49 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 4 -2 3 2 0 2 0 7 7 LAND (KM) 27 77 124 174 201 232 248 258 299 380 402 319 298 358 218 128 83 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.3 24.3 25.5 26.2 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 91.3 91.7 92.1 92.3 92.5 92.5 92.3 91.8 91.3 90.5 89.6 88.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 4 6 6 6 5 7 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 33 24 21 21 23 30 43 66 50 30 76 110 44 25 24 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -14. -19. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 45. 45. 40. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.5 90.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 13.8% 10.3% 9.0% 2.0% 11.5% 8.4% 11.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.6% 4.8% 3.5% 3.1% 0.7% 3.9% 2.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/05/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 28 34 39 44 49 54 58 65 65 60 57 51 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 26 32 37 42 47 52 56 63 63 58 55 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 22 28 33 38 43 48 52 59 59 54 51 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT