* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 21 25 29 35 35 35 34 38 42 47 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 20 22 22 23 24 27 31 37 37 37 37 40 44 49 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 23 23 24 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 30 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 12 16 13 20 25 24 30 22 24 13 13 3 10 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -7 -6 -2 -1 0 -4 0 -2 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 301 285 256 277 295 271 309 288 304 282 296 275 291 198 242 210 237 SST (C) 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 155 152 153 152 151 152 151 152 154 164 170 166 158 156 156 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 142 138 137 136 133 132 131 133 135 144 151 146 137 133 134 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 10 7 10 8 10 9 9 9 9 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 65 66 66 67 65 67 65 65 61 60 54 48 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -28 -21 -15 -14 -4 -1 5 12 16 16 23 0 4 21 27 9 200 MB DIV 7 12 14 37 40 38 10 32 26 22 32 32 4 13 19 51 54 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 3 3 5 1 7 -1 5 -2 7 LAND (KM) -5 64 122 157 177 235 262 301 330 301 287 314 379 418 364 347 279 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.6 92.2 92.7 93.1 93.7 94.0 93.8 93.6 93.0 92.4 91.5 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 29 22 21 21 21 24 24 24 32 57 62 32 36 86 115 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 39. 42. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 15. 15. 14. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.0 91.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.8% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 3.0% 2.3% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/04/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 22 23 24 27 31 37 37 37 37 40 44 49 52 54 55 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 21 24 28 34 34 34 34 37 41 46 49 51 52 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 25 31 31 31 31 34 38 43 46 48 49 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT