* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 20 25 31 36 38 37 36 35 36 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 27 28 32 38 44 46 45 44 43 44 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 27 27 27 29 30 31 31 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 9 6 12 15 17 24 27 32 31 37 32 36 34 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -4 -5 -7 -6 -5 -5 -2 0 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 263 280 306 285 267 309 271 310 297 307 292 305 287 305 290 297 291 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 163 157 155 154 153 155 155 157 159 162 163 165 168 168 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 164 151 144 140 138 135 136 135 138 138 141 139 142 146 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 7 10 7 10 8 11 9 11 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 63 65 68 67 67 65 66 64 64 64 64 61 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -18 -15 -15 -6 4 15 23 24 20 0 6 -3 -7 -10 -16 200 MB DIV 12 39 25 16 28 31 29 24 16 18 19 15 16 7 34 -18 29 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 3 0 3 -1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) -143 -42 24 78 105 160 178 193 209 232 289 306 342 322 276 205 123 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.8 91.5 92.2 92.8 93.7 94.3 94.7 94.7 94.7 94.4 94.3 94.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 3 3 3 1 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 38 38 25 22 21 23 27 30 34 34 39 43 44 47 47 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 45. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -22. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 11. 16. 18. 17. 16. 15. 16. 16. 15. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.0 90.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.1% 7.1% 2.2% 0.3% 3.2% 3.7% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 0.9% 3.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 27 28 32 38 44 46 45 44 43 44 43 43 44 46 18HR AGO 20 19 22 23 24 28 34 40 42 41 40 39 40 39 39 40 42 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 28 34 36 35 34 33 34 33 33 34 36 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT