* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 21 26 32 38 42 43 44 45 47 47 46 46 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 27 29 33 40 45 49 50 51 53 54 55 54 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 27 27 28 29 30 32 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 13 12 9 19 16 22 17 24 21 31 23 36 33 36 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -1 -4 -1 -2 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 351 266 291 319 320 288 300 299 318 283 292 286 290 282 292 283 270 SST (C) 29.6 30.3 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 172 165 157 155 154 155 154 156 156 159 159 161 163 165 165 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 172 155 145 141 138 138 135 137 136 141 140 141 138 141 140 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 8 10 8 10 8 11 9 11 10 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 62 64 67 68 68 68 66 63 62 59 55 54 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -5 -11 -8 -1 6 23 19 41 28 21 -1 -9 -5 -2 -13 200 MB DIV 18 21 37 33 17 28 40 17 47 31 22 11 6 1 20 -2 2 700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 0 1 -1 1 1 0 2 0 7 -1 4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) -117 -64 21 67 96 143 141 145 173 212 267 345 386 385 400 401 432 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.7 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.3 90.6 91.5 92.3 92.9 93.9 94.8 95.1 95.1 94.8 94.5 93.9 93.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 4 4 4 1 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 23 39 25 22 21 23 28 35 34 34 35 45 57 60 62 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 45. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 27. 27. 26. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.6 89.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.1% 7.1% 4.0% 0.7% 4.7% 6.6% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 27 29 33 40 45 49 50 51 53 54 55 54 54 55 18HR AGO 20 19 22 23 25 29 36 41 45 46 47 49 50 51 50 50 51 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 30 35 39 40 41 43 44 45 44 44 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT