* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/03/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 20 26 32 38 40 41 41 43 45 49 51 55 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 32 39 45 47 48 48 50 51 55 57 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 36 37 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 10 9 11 14 17 25 23 26 20 22 11 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 0 -1 -1 -7 -1 -3 -2 1 2 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 331 3 276 298 330 260 299 286 315 281 291 269 295 244 283 206 247 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 170 171 169 159 154 154 153 155 155 156 158 162 170 166 156 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 167 167 159 146 140 138 136 137 137 138 140 144 152 145 135 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 7 10 7 10 8 10 8 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 64 65 67 69 69 70 66 67 66 66 61 59 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 1 0 -8 -8 2 15 19 25 28 17 6 10 12 5 10 200 MB DIV 22 16 15 37 31 30 29 46 27 38 24 28 12 25 -1 33 -5 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 5 8 6 9 0 4 LAND (KM) -5 -157 -118 -56 -22 37 81 109 144 214 268 365 364 371 393 435 338 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.1 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.5 89.8 90.6 91.4 92.1 93.1 94.0 94.5 94.7 94.5 94.3 93.7 93.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 51 12 5 21 31 22 20 21 23 26 29 34 51 67 36 27 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -4. 0. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 44. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 12. 18. 20. 21. 21. 23. 25. 29. 31. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.5 88.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.8% 9.0% 3.7% 0.6% 2.8% 3.1% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 1.0% 3.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.1% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/03/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 32 39 45 47 48 48 50 51 55 57 61 65 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 28 35 41 43 44 44 46 47 51 53 57 61 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 24 31 37 39 40 40 42 43 47 49 53 57 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT