* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 25 31 37 40 43 45 51 56 61 63 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 24 24 24 23 25 26 33 35 39 41 46 52 57 58 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 24 22 25 26 30 30 30 32 33 36 39 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 5 10 8 21 11 24 10 19 5 12 3 19 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 5 4 1 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -2 -4 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 281 326 46 202 268 246 263 259 268 270 262 290 246 216 241 243 254 SST (C) 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 30.7 30.1 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.4 29.8 29.2 29.7 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 165 167 167 164 162 170 170 155 160 168 170 164 153 162 145 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 159 159 157 154 149 168 156 139 141 148 156 142 131 138 125 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 9 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 62 63 66 66 66 64 65 62 66 65 67 57 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 -1 -5 -13 -22 -25 -21 -16 -15 -9 -10 -56 8 -18 -2 -20 200 MB DIV 2 22 13 15 17 17 32 41 19 4 2 22 21 45 -4 24 5 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 5 2 8 3 12 -2 2 -1 1 LAND (KM) -66 9 59 44 -21 -127 -48 49 114 189 279 397 392 290 216 211 233 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.7 87.3 87.8 88.4 89.4 90.3 91.0 91.4 91.6 91.6 91.5 90.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 6 6 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 52 70 67 50 12 31 42 25 35 62 63 35 85 120 81 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 41. 46. 48. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 20. 23. 25. 31. 37. 41. 43. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.2 86.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 27.5% 18.0% 6.8% 3.6% 11.1% 20.9% 29.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4% Consensus: 2.6% 10.1% 6.3% 2.3% 1.2% 3.9% 7.1% 11.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 24 24 23 25 26 33 35 39 41 46 52 57 58 61 63 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 18 20 21 28 30 34 36 41 47 52 53 56 58 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 15 17 18 25 27 31 33 38 44 49 50 53 55 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT