* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/03/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 16 16 21 26 31 34 37 40 45 51 53 53 54 56 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 25 30 27 27 31 34 37 41 47 49 50 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 26 25 25 25 25 26 29 29 29 29 30 31 33 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 2 8 11 16 20 19 23 16 17 12 17 24 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 6 4 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -2 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 230 275 305 122 201 272 237 269 252 284 239 279 233 260 232 250 232 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 30.7 29.7 29.3 29.9 30.3 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 156 154 154 159 160 170 162 155 166 169 168 158 155 163 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 148 145 144 147 146 169 147 137 146 153 146 136 133 141 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 9 8 9 7 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 62 64 67 67 66 66 64 66 65 64 63 56 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 -6 -10 -12 -23 -29 -35 -22 -15 -10 -18 -17 -40 -12 -15 -29 200 MB DIV -11 -10 17 12 2 6 15 23 11 1 26 3 36 20 46 -19 6 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 4 4 6 2 5 3 4 4 3 6 6 0 2 -8 LAND (KM) -120 -48 25 96 106 0 -105 -62 26 118 231 342 450 358 286 284 368 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.8 21.9 22.9 23.9 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.6 86.2 86.6 87.2 88.2 89.1 90.0 90.6 90.9 91.2 91.4 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 33 47 60 65 45 11 21 38 24 46 63 34 36 94 148 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 41. 45. 47. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. 1. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 25. 31. 33. 33. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 85.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.3% 5.4% 3.1% 1.9% 7.6% 17.3% 32.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 2.6% 5.8% 10.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/03/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/03/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 25 25 30 27 27 31 34 37 41 47 49 50 50 52 18HR AGO 20 19 21 21 21 26 23 23 27 30 33 37 43 45 46 46 48 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 21 18 18 22 25 28 32 38 40 41 41 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT