* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 31 36 39 40 43 44 47 48 49 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 34 38 30 28 31 33 35 38 39 40 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 29 30 31 27 27 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 3 3 9 9 21 16 28 19 27 12 25 15 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 6 8 2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 189 207 248 274 144 244 266 266 260 260 279 273 285 259 262 257 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 30.7 29.7 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.5 29.9 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 156 152 154 154 157 159 170 162 155 164 169 168 165 161 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 148 144 144 144 144 147 169 146 139 144 152 152 142 136 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 10 8 10 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 59 65 67 67 67 65 68 65 64 63 64 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 9 0 -3 -3 -18 -21 -35 -16 -15 -16 -19 -42 -16 -35 -6 200 MB DIV -17 -6 -5 4 13 10 19 28 29 25 21 10 18 30 30 10 6 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 4 5 7 4 4 5 7 2 5 2 8 2 3 0 LAND (KM) -100 -139 -86 -15 46 117 9 -91 -60 16 123 235 357 443 411 359 334 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.7 20.8 21.9 22.8 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.8 85.2 85.6 86.1 87.1 88.1 89.0 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 16 34 46 64 46 23 21 38 25 51 71 61 37 37 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 42. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 11. 14. 15. 18. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 84.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 10.4% 7.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 3.7% 9.4% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.9% 5.1% 3.1% 2.5% 0.1% 1.3% 6.3% 7.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 30 34 38 30 28 31 33 35 38 39 40 41 44 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 28 32 36 28 26 29 31 33 36 37 38 39 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 25 29 33 25 23 26 28 30 33 34 35 36 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 23 27 19 17 20 22 24 27 28 29 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT