* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 31 35 38 40 42 42 45 45 47 47 49 53 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 31 28 30 31 33 34 35 36 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 30 31 28 27 27 30 29 29 28 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 8 11 14 19 21 27 23 26 23 21 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 5 4 5 6 0 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 -3 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 216 189 209 256 282 217 278 238 275 267 286 259 287 257 285 257 299 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 29.2 29.4 30.5 30.5 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 161 156 152 147 154 156 170 169 158 156 160 165 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 153 149 144 137 142 143 166 162 142 139 143 144 147 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 8 9 7 9 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 60 64 66 67 69 69 68 67 66 66 62 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 6 6 -2 -2 -12 -15 -21 -22 -9 -1 -6 -21 -34 -25 -44 200 MB DIV -27 -17 -5 3 4 10 11 37 26 22 13 27 16 30 -16 24 13 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 5 5 6 6 3 1 3 0 3 -1 3 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) -43 -79 -110 -76 -6 125 61 -32 -110 6 95 194 309 397 367 324 261 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.9 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.2 84.5 84.9 85.4 86.3 87.5 88.5 89.7 90.6 91.3 92.1 93.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 7 6 5 5 6 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 29 7 21 33 50 54 39 7 40 29 26 37 46 55 63 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 15. 15. 17. 17. 19. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 83.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.8% 10.0% 8.8% 6.6% 10.8% 11.3% 15.5% Logistic: 1.7% 5.9% 3.6% 1.8% 0.7% 5.2% 5.5% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% Consensus: 2.4% 8.8% 5.0% 3.6% 2.4% 5.6% 5.6% 11.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 31 28 30 31 33 34 35 36 38 41 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 32 36 31 28 30 31 33 34 35 36 38 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 30 34 29 26 28 29 31 32 33 34 36 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 25 29 24 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT