* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 31 33 37 40 41 43 45 47 47 50 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 31 34 32 28 27 32 33 35 36 38 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 29 29 27 27 27 30 30 30 29 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 5 9 11 9 13 16 23 23 25 22 25 18 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 13 8 5 3 4 1 -2 -3 -5 -1 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 279 239 254 236 235 298 236 282 246 284 266 291 265 294 239 258 235 SST (C) 29.3 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.4 30.1 28.9 29.3 29.8 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 165 162 155 150 149 155 159 156 170 148 155 164 170 170 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 159 155 148 142 140 145 146 141 156 133 139 146 157 151 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 9 9 8 9 7 9 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 60 60 65 67 67 67 67 67 65 66 67 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 -2 -8 -11 -19 -18 -25 -33 -30 -16 -12 -9 -32 -5 -22 -10 200 MB DIV 3 -1 -37 -34 -7 10 8 17 28 32 25 6 43 21 51 15 57 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 4 1 6 1 4 1 2 2 1 4 -1 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 32 -43 -103 -87 -32 110 100 -46 -143 -53 51 167 304 455 371 290 218 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.9 84.3 84.6 84.9 85.9 86.9 88.0 88.9 90.0 90.8 91.5 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 14 28 30 48 59 43 4 24 30 29 65 69 56 62 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 20. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 83.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.7% 9.4% 8.2% 6.2% 9.8% 11.2% 16.4% Logistic: 7.0% 21.2% 20.1% 21.3% 10.3% 14.0% 8.5% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 5.9% Consensus: 3.9% 13.3% 10.4% 9.9% 5.5% 8.2% 6.6% 12.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 31 34 32 28 27 32 33 35 36 38 41 45 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 33 36 34 30 29 34 35 37 38 40 43 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 30 33 31 27 26 31 32 34 35 37 40 44 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 27 25 21 20 25 26 28 29 31 34 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT