* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 31 30 32 33 36 35 39 38 37 38 38 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 31 30 32 33 36 29 28 30 29 30 30 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 34 34 34 32 31 31 31 27 27 30 30 29 28 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 12 12 10 16 11 21 17 28 25 32 28 37 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 7 6 2 -1 0 -6 -4 -6 -4 0 -6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 270 281 270 256 250 271 276 292 278 288 281 288 291 293 276 267 273 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.5 29.1 28.8 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 146 148 145 146 152 150 142 152 147 155 161 169 170 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 141 140 141 136 137 141 137 128 138 131 138 144 152 155 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 8 10 9 9 8 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 59 58 55 58 61 64 63 62 65 65 66 67 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 6 0 -14 -39 -39 -39 -25 -39 -17 -19 -10 -7 -11 -2 0 200 MB DIV 36 14 1 -2 -10 -16 12 11 8 25 47 44 21 14 22 31 33 700-850 TADV 1 3 8 6 1 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 349 253 155 86 48 99 200 138 1 -112 -46 86 208 330 280 143 -40 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 16.6 17.7 18.9 19.7 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.0 81.1 81.8 82.4 82.8 83.8 84.9 86.2 87.4 88.6 89.8 91.1 92.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 19 22 26 28 51 76 39 5 30 24 26 33 39 43 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 5. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 80.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.9% 8.9% 7.6% 5.4% 9.0% 9.9% 14.5% Logistic: 7.7% 16.4% 16.8% 16.2% 3.0% 5.7% 2.0% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 4.7% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 3.0% 5.6% 4.1% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 31 30 32 33 36 29 28 30 29 30 30 34 31 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 29 28 30 31 34 27 26 28 27 28 28 32 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 26 25 27 28 31 24 23 25 24 25 25 29 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 20 21 24 17 16 18 17 18 18 22 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT