* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 09/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 23 24 28 29 31 34 34 36 39 43 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 22 23 24 28 29 26 32 31 34 37 40 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 24 22 20 21 21 20 24 24 25 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 14 19 17 15 18 15 23 17 24 23 26 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 7 3 -1 5 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -2 -6 0 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 247 245 243 229 249 238 289 263 293 287 312 302 314 295 284 253 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 28.8 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 142 143 145 143 148 157 151 140 147 163 171 172 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 134 137 137 138 134 139 145 137 125 132 146 155 163 166 161 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 9 9 8 9 8 9 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 63 60 59 60 62 67 68 64 60 61 61 64 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 4 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 16 14 3 -19 -35 -47 -37 -37 -42 -45 -28 -15 -29 -51 -27 200 MB DIV 51 37 21 6 -5 -36 -3 18 -4 27 24 28 15 23 22 16 26 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 6 7 5 1 12 0 4 2 4 1 -1 0 -9 0 LAND (KM) 327 364 411 346 291 213 254 314 223 76 -4 86 189 293 409 174 36 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.7 16.0 17.4 18.6 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.1 78.8 79.4 80.0 80.5 81.5 82.5 83.8 84.9 86.2 87.4 88.8 90.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 26 28 25 24 29 55 136 62 18 20 27 63 69 50 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -14. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 11. 14. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 78.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 8.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 0.5% 2.8% 1.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 6.7% 5.2% 3.8% 0.2% 1.5% 3.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 09/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 09/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 24 22 23 24 28 29 26 32 31 34 37 40 45 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 23 21 22 23 27 28 25 31 30 33 36 39 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 18 19 20 24 25 22 28 27 30 33 36 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT