* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 08/04/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 20 20 22 26 29 31 34 36 38 42 46 50 54 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 20 20 22 26 29 31 34 36 38 42 46 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 19 19 19 20 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 12 10 5 5 7 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 0 -1 10 7 5 6 4 8 5 4 3 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 95 98 99 113 117 163 224 254 272 268 284 279 291 282 295 286 300 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 108 108 110 110 109 112 118 124 123 123 125 128 131 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 101 102 105 105 104 107 112 119 116 115 115 119 121 128 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 6 6 8 7 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 72 73 71 64 60 56 52 47 47 44 46 45 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 1 4 21 37 52 58 44 47 27 -4 -16 -37 -29 -43 -38 -39 200 MB DIV 17 30 24 41 36 27 40 0 -3 -18 -6 -16 -12 -7 -4 -10 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 8 6 18 31 30 31 26 25 16 15 7 0 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 531 571 662 774 905 1233 1555 1856 2191 2073 1933 1832 1656 1453 1211 953 686 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.3 22.6 23.4 24.4 25.6 28.6 31.7 34.7 38.0 41.2 44.4 47.2 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 11 13 16 14 16 15 16 14 13 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 8 12 7 13 28 36 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 822 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.0 22.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 08/04/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 08/04/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 20 20 22 26 29 31 34 36 38 42 46 50 54 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 19 19 21 25 28 30 33 35 37 41 45 49 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 17 19 23 26 28 31 33 35 39 43 47 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT