* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 08/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 26 28 30 31 35 39 42 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 26 28 30 31 35 39 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 12 10 7 8 13 16 17 15 15 14 15 12 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 3 4 6 6 6 6 2 2 -1 -2 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 56 68 92 117 138 209 241 264 285 295 300 310 314 317 304 307 297 SST (C) 26.1 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.8 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.4 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 103 101 101 104 103 106 108 112 116 119 125 125 126 127 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 96 93 94 98 97 100 100 105 108 109 114 112 112 112 114 116 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 70 69 63 58 51 48 46 44 42 45 44 49 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 10 17 25 34 54 47 26 3 -26 -44 -66 -81 -100 -86 -85 -63 200 MB DIV 10 33 26 16 15 19 8 -8 -13 -8 -27 6 -12 0 -2 18 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 1 7 13 28 35 35 34 26 17 12 4 -2 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 577 611 684 784 913 1130 1415 1699 1977 2282 2358 2294 2092 1898 1724 1543 1345 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.3 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.8 22.9 23.4 24.2 25.3 27.7 30.6 33.4 36.1 39.1 41.8 44.5 46.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 10 12 14 15 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 6 10 11 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15. 19. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.7 22.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 08/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.6% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 08/04/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 26 28 30 31 35 39 42 46 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 19 19 21 23 25 25 27 29 30 34 38 41 45 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 16 18 20 22 22 24 26 27 31 35 38 42 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT