* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 08/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 36 38 40 44 48 52 55 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 36 38 40 44 48 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 14 11 8 8 7 9 10 11 12 10 12 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -1 0 2 1 9 5 4 1 2 2 -3 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 61 49 55 74 99 161 215 260 280 284 287 306 310 325 314 311 300 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.7 25.0 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 113 106 103 103 106 102 106 108 112 117 118 120 123 126 128 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 106 99 96 96 99 96 99 100 103 108 109 109 112 114 116 117 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 80 80 76 73 70 66 62 54 50 47 46 42 43 43 42 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 11 14 15 37 43 27 20 -4 -11 -45 -53 -79 -80 -82 -75 200 MB DIV -8 11 45 17 7 27 17 -5 -16 -16 -34 2 -12 -7 -9 -6 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -8 -5 1 11 12 34 25 26 19 19 16 6 6 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 591 596 643 736 839 1059 1291 1549 1794 2051 2318 2228 2156 2026 1822 1589 1355 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.0 23.0 23.3 24.0 24.8 26.8 29.3 31.9 34.3 36.8 39.4 42.1 44.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 10 10 12 13 13 11 12 12 13 11 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 5 9 18 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 812 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 16. 18. 20. 24. 28. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.7 23.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 08/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 08/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 36 38 40 44 48 52 55 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 20 21 24 28 30 32 35 37 39 43 47 51 54 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 17 20 24 26 28 31 33 35 39 43 47 50 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT