* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 08/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 18 19 21 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 18 19 21 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 18 19 20 22 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 20 20 21 17 16 13 5 3 6 11 11 10 13 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 1 5 3 7 4 4 3 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 53 69 78 106 140 147 147 161 301 304 299 324 318 342 327 330 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.3 25.0 25.1 24.8 24.8 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 114 107 104 106 104 105 108 111 116 116 120 123 126 126 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 107 99 97 99 98 99 101 104 108 108 111 112 113 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 76 74 69 66 59 51 50 46 46 40 42 41 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 13 12 12 26 54 49 32 15 -5 -13 -41 -45 -72 -56 -59 200 MB DIV -25 -6 15 20 23 38 15 0 5 -21 -18 -35 3 -18 -8 -10 3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 3 6 13 15 15 24 20 21 11 5 0 -7 LAND (KM) 626 614 635 677 744 942 1188 1448 1727 2004 2301 2174 2092 2001 1821 1636 1423 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.5 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.6 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.2 25.8 28.1 30.8 33.6 36.3 39.2 41.9 44.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 11 13 14 13 14 13 13 11 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 7 9 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.7 23.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 08/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 08/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 19 18 19 21 25 28 31 33 36 41 45 49 52 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 20 24 27 30 32 35 40 44 48 51 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT