* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 05/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 37 36 33 33 32 32 32 29 27 26 26 28 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 12 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 8 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 179 211 209 190 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 103 107 107 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 96 93 97 96 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 50 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 5 -27 -41 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 32 13 29 70 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 10 -2 -24 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 296 146 -1 -173 -344 -696 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.4 94.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.8% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 05/21/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT