* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 05/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 31 32 32 31 28 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 26 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 34 37 39 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 17 14 11 29 27 31 30 29 28 26 41 49 49 35 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 7 9 2 -1 2 -5 1 4 13 4 -2 -6 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 184 168 166 196 194 202 192 208 215 243 287 299 332 343 5 2 12 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.5 24.5 24.7 24.8 22.9 23.3 5.2 7.6 10.4 5.2 4.3 15.3 16.2 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 107 102 102 104 106 95 98 67 71 73 71 69 72 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 100 96 91 92 92 95 85 88 67 70 72 70 68 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -56.2 -57.0 -57.3 -58.1 -58.9 -59.4 -59.6 -60.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 4 6 2 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 50 48 50 52 49 44 46 50 60 64 65 63 67 61 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 2 -14 -23 -51 -31 -74 -100 -80 -45 -38 -55 -113 -154 -161 -166 200 MB DIV -47 -17 34 16 11 94 52 41 31 50 33 -34 20 -37 -43 -74 -30 700-850 TADV 0 6 18 -1 -18 23 16 79 -14 61 19 153 149 131 80 22 -11 LAND (KM) 364 319 189 66 -55 -342 -635 -937 -999 -999 -780 -195 135 376 939 1284 1406 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.3 27.3 28.2 29.1 31.3 34.2 37.8 41.1 43.9 45.7 46.2 46.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.9 94.6 95.4 96.3 97.9 98.2 96.7 93.6 88.4 80.7 69.5 58.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 12 13 13 17 20 22 25 35 39 38 30 20 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -27. -36. -46. -49. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -6. -13. -21. -25. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.4 93.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 05/21/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 23 24 25 25 27 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 19 20 21 21 23 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT