* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 05/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 27 27 29 29 29 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 23 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 31 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 26 26 27 29 30 30 34 38 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 15 16 15 15 22 26 23 24 26 31 43 35 38 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 2 3 0 7 0 10 4 4 6 0 10 11 11 9 SHEAR DIR 216 186 167 160 181 189 220 190 205 211 228 253 293 291 301 312 337 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.1 24.7 23.1 21.1 7.4 11.5 5.9 8.2 8.8 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 116 110 104 106 107 106 105 96 88 71 74 72 72 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 106 103 97 92 94 94 93 92 87 82 70 72 71 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.7 -55.6 -56.2 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 7 5 6 3 6 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 51 47 53 54 44 38 39 44 59 71 80 80 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 19 13 5 -17 -16 -50 -61 -81 -92 -22 73 87 81 89 5 200 MB DIV 0 -63 -12 48 20 41 72 64 76 27 53 65 7 41 51 21 6 700-850 TADV 7 -2 1 1 -3 4 23 16 27 13 0 69 4 193 144 130 134 LAND (KM) 390 343 280 224 155 -64 -278 -471 -665 -938 -999 -927 -383 73 634 1317 421 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 27.1 28.4 30.2 32.3 34.8 38.0 41.5 44.9 46.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 93.9 94.4 95.0 95.7 97.4 98.4 98.6 97.7 95.8 91.5 83.9 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 15 21 27 37 42 47 49 44 38 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 22. 21. 20. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. -24. -31. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 2. -3. -8. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.3 93.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 05/21/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 23 23 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 31 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 28 28 29 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 17 19 20 21 21 23 24 24 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT