* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912021 05/21/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 26 26 29 32 35 35 33 29 25 20 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 26 24 26 26 27 29 30 30 30 29 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 25 26 27 29 30 30 30 36 40 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 13 14 15 5 26 21 27 26 29 29 36 38 44 31 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 2 8 3 3 2 0 1 5 11 9 0 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 209 203 181 164 166 201 210 199 210 225 248 284 301 308 314 337 352 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.7 22.9 23.2 5.0 5.2 7.2 5.4 10.9 10.9 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 115 110 103 106 108 114 95 97 68 71 72 71 73 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 102 98 91 94 96 102 86 87 67 70 71 71 72 69 67 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -55.3 -55.6 -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -57.2 -57.4 -57.9 -58.4 -58.2 -58.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 8 5 7 3 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 54 52 51 56 50 44 47 50 66 72 74 77 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 12 6 5 6 -27 -69 -42 -96 -100 -86 -25 10 -32 -43 -111 -160 200 MB DIV 16 1 -42 -17 27 33 100 47 24 24 59 29 -41 35 4 -6 -4 700-850 TADV 5 13 0 -2 3 -18 28 46 89 -19 73 12 195 206 184 111 84 LAND (KM) 390 348 309 242 134 -101 -362 -655 -966 -999 -999 -797 -197 7 770 1508 968 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.5 29.0 31.1 34.1 38.0 41.2 44.1 46.1 46.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 93.8 94.1 94.8 95.5 97.2 98.6 98.8 97.0 93.7 88.5 80.4 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 13 18 20 22 26 37 45 44 39 30 23 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 19. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -10. -15. -22. -30. -38. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 9. 12. 15. 15. 13. 9. 5. 0. -5. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.3 93.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912021 INVEST 05/21/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912021 INVEST 05/21/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 25 26 24 26 26 27 29 30 30 30 29 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 21 23 23 24 26 27 27 27 26 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 16 18 18 19 21 22 22 22 21 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT