* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 63 55 49 40 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 54 52 46 38 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 66 57 53 49 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 34 52 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 21 18 -2 -6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 205 199 209 202 197 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 17.8 13.6 10.6 10.6 8.5 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 82 76 73 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 79 73 72 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -49.8 -48.4 -46.8 -44.4 -42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 2.4 3.5 4.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 58 65 68 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 30 29 33 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 85 123 207 244 341 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 94 88 152 164 114 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 -35 -34 -117 -84 -190 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 391 184 0 392 650 1115 1293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 45.3 48.6 51.9 55.2 59.5 62.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.5 56.3 53.0 49.8 46.5 41.8 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 41 39 39 32 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 30 CX,CY: 10/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -20. -24. -29. -34. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -15. -21. -30. -51. -60. -69. -72. -78. -84. -92.-102.-109.-113.-119. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 41.9 59.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 54 52 46 38 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 55 53 47 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 58 50 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 54 46 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT