* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 63 55 49 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 62 54 48 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 62 54 50 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 18 19 31 50 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 10 21 21 -8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 224 218 209 213 203 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 23.8 18.0 13.3 11.3 9.5 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 104 82 75 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 98 79 73 71 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -48.6 -45.6 -43.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.4 3.0 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 54 56 64 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 36 34 29 33 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 80 116 199 309 327 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 82 84 113 154 128 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 15 -20 -79 -80 -131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 626 408 200 17 416 891 1165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 42.1 45.1 48.6 52.0 57.6 62.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 58.6 56.2 52.8 49.4 44.1 39.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 35 38 41 36 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 25 CX,CY: 6/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. -44. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -4. -2. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -15. -21. -40. -47. -53. -55. -60. -65. -72. -81. -88. -92. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.0 61.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/10/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 62 54 48 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 62 54 48 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 52 46 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 52 46 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT