* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 82 78 61 55 36 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 82 78 61 55 36 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 81 82 81 73 58 51 42 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 12 13 7 16 32 42 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -1 8 11 20 -10 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 205 210 230 213 224 196 205 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 23.5 17.8 11.1 9.7 8.9 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 102 81 73 69 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 130 95 78 71 67 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.1 -48.1 -45.7 -42.2 -43.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 2.9 3.1 4.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 55 53 53 59 64 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 35 37 36 29 36 28 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 1 25 26 73 213 355 345 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 16 60 89 89 160 101 37 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 8 -2 18 -4 -66 -126 -72 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1048 815 613 399 216 385 917 1205 1189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 36.8 39.2 42.1 45.0 51.5 57.6 60.4 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.3 61.6 60.9 58.7 56.5 49.3 43.6 41.1 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 25 29 33 37 37 25 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 17 CX,CY: -2/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -2. -8. -15. -25. -34. -39. -43. -47. -50. -54. -55. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -8. -4. -14. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -2. -19. -25. -44. -57. -59. -62. -65. -70. -77. -82. -84. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 34.4 62.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 9.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/10/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 6( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 81 82 82 78 61 55 36 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 80 80 76 59 53 34 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 72 55 49 30 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 49 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT