* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 82 84 84 73 56 46 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 82 84 84 69 52 43 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 80 82 80 55 52 46 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 9 12 11 18 39 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 6 20 5 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 162 181 210 223 231 236 203 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.7 27.9 23.3 13.2 11.4 9.0 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 135 137 141 101 75 72 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 124 130 94 73 70 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -49.7 -47.2 -45.3 -43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.7 2.8 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 55 58 54 54 63 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 35 36 37 33 28 29 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -12 12 25 32 150 269 350 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 22 16 45 79 113 124 112 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 19 13 28 34 -8 -18 -158 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1189 1002 805 620 397 40 673 1114 1164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.9 36.8 39.4 42.0 48.3 54.6 59.4 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.0 61.9 60.5 59.0 52.7 45.9 41.7 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 23 28 34 38 32 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 13 20 21 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 17 CX,CY: -5/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -13. -21. -30. -35. -39. -42. -45. -49. -50. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -4. -11. -11. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. -7. -24. -34. -54. -56. -59. -62. -66. -71. -74. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 33.0 62.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 9.5% 8.1% 4.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 7.3% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/09/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 9( 22) 3( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 82 84 84 69 52 43 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 81 83 83 68 51 42 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 78 78 63 46 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 55 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT