* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 87 88 90 89 77 61 53 39 38 36 32 25 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 85 85 87 88 90 89 74 58 50 36 35 33 29 22 18 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 84 84 83 62 55 49 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 5 10 8 20 43 51 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 6 14 8 -4 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 209 175 166 194 208 247 240 205 212 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.7 23.1 12.5 11.4 9.6 10.1 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 148 138 136 137 100 74 72 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 132 123 121 124 93 73 71 67 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.1 -47.9 -45.6 -42.7 -45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.2 1.9 2.8 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 54 53 56 54 53 62 63 64 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 35 35 36 31 28 30 26 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 0 -18 4 26 150 258 311 342 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 44 47 19 22 93 67 105 100 -43 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 9 14 31 12 -9 -14 -152 -95 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1403 1339 1160 977 781 387 59 750 1250 1249 1241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.7 33.2 35.1 37.0 42.1 48.6 54.6 59.9 63.1 64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.5 62.3 62.1 62.0 59.0 52.2 44.7 39.5 36.5 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 19 23 34 39 34 23 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 19 13 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -18. -27. -36. -43. -46. -50. -53. -55. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -6. -11. -9. -17. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. -8. -24. -32. -46. -47. -49. -53. -60. -64. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 30.2 60.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 619.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 9.2% 7.3% 7.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 4.3% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/09/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 12( 29) 11( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 0( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 87 88 90 89 74 58 50 36 35 33 29 22 18 16 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 86 87 89 88 73 57 49 35 34 32 28 21 17 15 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 84 83 68 52 44 30 29 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 76 61 45 37 23 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 65 50 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 66 51 35 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 87 78 72 68 53 37 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS