* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 99 100 99 97 92 78 58 53 42 40 37 32 27 24 21 V (KT) LAND 95 96 99 100 99 97 92 78 58 53 41 40 36 31 27 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 96 97 96 95 90 59 55 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 10 9 14 16 22 33 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 4 18 12 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 216 229 188 175 224 216 227 218 192 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.5 27.9 27.6 24.0 13.8 11.8 9.3 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 157 145 138 136 104 75 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 139 127 121 122 96 73 71 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.1 -47.1 -45.1 -43.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 3.6 2.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 58 54 58 53 52 61 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 36 36 35 35 35 33 27 31 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 6 7 -5 3 23 69 257 331 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 39 27 29 41 17 62 83 140 127 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 2 9 32 11 -52 -73 -163 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1313 1375 1454 1321 1172 781 413 25 659 1188 1321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.5 30.7 32.0 33.3 37.1 42.0 47.6 54.0 59.2 63.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.8 60.8 61.3 61.9 61.7 58.6 52.5 46.0 40.0 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 16 23 31 37 34 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 31 28 23 17 20 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -18. -28. -38. -46. -49. -52. -56. -58. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -15. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -17. -37. -42. -53. -55. -58. -63. -68. -70. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.3 58.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 666.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.24 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 9.8% 7.6% 7.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 12.5% 8.3% 7.2% 4.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.8% 5.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 11.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/08/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 21( 48) 20( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 3( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 99 100 99 97 92 78 58 53 41 40 36 31 27 24 20 18HR AGO 95 94 97 98 97 95 90 76 56 51 39 38 34 29 25 22 18 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 91 89 84 70 50 45 33 32 28 23 19 16 DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 82 77 63 43 38 26 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 74 69 55 35 30 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 75 70 56 36 31 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 96 99 90 84 80 75 61 41 36 24 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS