* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/08/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 97 98 98 98 95 87 66 50 45 32 22 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 97 98 98 98 95 87 66 50 45 32 22 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 94 95 97 99 97 96 78 55 49 49 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 7 11 9 15 13 32 60 52 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 1 0 13 18 0 0 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 238 263 271 191 202 234 226 227 202 188 188 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 27.7 27.6 18.4 11.4 10.8 10.2 10.0 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 163 163 160 150 136 137 82 73 72 69 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 146 147 143 133 122 125 78 71 70 67 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -49.1 -45.2 -42.4 -41.2 -42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.3 3.4 4.7 6.4 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 54 55 57 55 62 52 56 58 52 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 36 36 36 37 37 36 28 26 31 29 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 1 0 6 -16 4 33 145 280 337 311 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 49 35 32 40 23 83 85 145 104 -19 -84 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 -4 -2 3 3 18 35 5 -35 -195 -101 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1276 1295 1327 1411 1380 1034 654 256 334 899 1323 1304 1339 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.0 28.9 30.2 31.4 34.6 39.1 44.5 50.1 56.0 61.3 64.4 65.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.7 59.6 60.5 61.3 62.0 60.3 55.5 49.0 42.8 37.4 33.8 32.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 14 15 20 27 34 35 32 24 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 41 34 29 28 15 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 3. -0. -5. -14. -24. -33. -41. -48. -55. -59. -61. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -15. -20. -15. -18. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -8. -29. -45. -50. -63. -73. -80. -86. -89. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 27.1 57.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 652.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.26 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 8.8% 7.1% 7.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 13.3% 7.5% 6.7% 4.9% 6.3% 3.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.1% 5.1% 4.6% 3.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/08/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/08/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 21( 48) 21( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 15( 32) 3( 34) 0( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 97 98 98 98 95 87 66 50 45 32 22 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 96 97 97 97 94 86 65 49 44 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 92 92 89 81 60 44 39 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 85 85 82 74 53 37 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 76 73 65 44 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 77 74 66 45 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 95 97 88 82 78 75 67 46 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS